Greenhouse gas emissions scenario SSP3-7.0 — Horizon 2080 (2071-2100) (French, SHP)

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Publisher-reported update

2026-09-09

The West Nile virus (WNV) activity zone corresponds to the territory where WNV cases have been documented by human, animal, and entomological (mosquito) surveillance. This zone indicates where there is a higher probability of the virus being present in Quebec based on historical data. All surveillance data was aggregated to form the WNV's area of activity over the study period, by merging the 2 km resolution buffer zones and the municipalities of each mosquito case or batch. Outside of this area, the presence of WNV remains possible, but the virus has not been detected by surveillance. This can be explained, among other things, by the movements of infected birds and mosquitoes over varying distances. The climatic zone favorable to the transmission of WNV by Culex pipiens (one of the main vectors of the virus) highlights the territory where the estimated seasonal average temperature could be conducive to the transmission of WNV in Quebec. This zone is defined by a seasonal average temperature (calculated from April to September) greater than or equal to 14°C. The indicator was calculated for historical records 1989-2018 (current distribution) and for the horizons of 2030, 2050 and…

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