Forecasted Changes in Growth Potential, Egg Survival and Thermal Habitat Suitability for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic (English, French, NETCDF)

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2026-03-24

Polar cod (Boreogadus saida), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus) are prominent gadid species within the northwest Atlantic Ocean in terms of their ecological and socio-economic importance but it is unclear how climate-induced changes in ocean temperature may alter their distributions by the end of the century (2100). We used physiologically based species distribution models to predict how ocean warming will influence the availability of suitable habitat for early life-stages in these marine gadids. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models for Polar cod, Atlantic cod, and Greenland cod to create predicted suitability raster surfaces for these metrics across four climatology periods (1981–2005, 2026–2050, 2051–2075, 2076–2100). The analysis focused on the projected changes in temperature in ocean shelf areas where ocean depth is ≤400 m. We created an integrated habitat suitability index by combining the suitability surfaces for egg survival and growth potential to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. The resulting surfaces indicate that suitable…

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