Present day (FS 2000-2023 estimate) (COG)

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COG

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Publisher-reported update

2026-05-25

Flood Susceptibility Mapping is a national map series that shows how likely different areas in Canada are to experience flooding. This updated version improves on an earlier one-time map by incorporating yearly and seasonal data, along with a larger set of known flood locations used for model training. These enhancements make it possible to assess how flood susceptibility varies from year to year, identify long-term trends, and detect years that were unusually wet or dry. The system integrates a wide range of information, including land characteristics such as elevation, soil type, land cover, and vegetation, as well as seasonal weather variables such as rainfall and temperature. It also incorporates geographic context so the model can better capture spatial patterns. Several artificial intelligence (AI) models were evaluated, and the XGBoost algorithm was selected for its accuracy and reliability. The model was further calibrated so that the probabilities it produces better align with real-world conditions, with notable improvements in areas where flood susceptibility is moderate. To characterize uncertainty, the model was repeatedly tested using slightly different samples of…

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