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2026-03-24

Wang, Z., Greenan, B.J.W., Hannah, C.G., and Layton, C. 2025. Past and future sea surface temperature changes in the oceans surrounding Canada. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean. Sci. 404: v + 44 p This study presents changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the oceans surrounding Canada using past observations and model projections of future scenarios. The past changes are derived using an SST product, HadISST, in which a recent period (2012-2022) was referenced to a 26-year climatology (1955- 1980). The future changes in SST are estimated using a 22-member ensemble of CMIP6 models. The SST changes for overlapping periods from the CMIP6 ensemble and the HadISST in the 10 regions of the Canadian shelf waters are in general agreement, although the CMIP6 results tend to overestimate the observed changes by about 0.1 oC. One exception to this is the Scotian Shelf where the CMIP6 models underestimate the observed SST change. The Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf, Gulf of St. Lawrence and southern Newfoundland shelf are the regions with the largest observed SST increases around Canada. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has the highest correlation (r=0.65) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal…

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